Global solar installations are expected to grow 43% this year, to 73GW, according to GTM’s latest report, ‘Global Solar Demand Monitor, Q3 2016’.

　　(PV-Tech訊)根據(jù)GTM的最新報告《2016年第三季度全球太陽能需求監(jiān)測》，預(yù)計今年全球太陽能安裝量將增長43%，達到73GW。

　　2016 is set to be another record year for solar globally, after 2015 which had a total demand of 55GW, 10GW more than the previous year. The first half of 2016 saw a major uptick in demand driven by an unprecedented volume of installations in China and the UK, in advance of expiring capital incentives. Also in H1 2016, the US reached a record-breaking 1 million solar system installs, which further solidified the nation’s number 2 position in the global market, with 14.5GW, bolsted by the ITC extension. India completed 2GW of solar installs within the same time frame.

　　在2015年總需求達55GW，超過上一年10GW之后，對于全球太陽能而言，2016年被設(shè)定為又一創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的一年。2016年上半年看到的需求大幅上漲由中國和英國在資金補貼期滿之前，前所未有的安裝量推動。此外，2016年上半年，受到ITC延期的支持，美國創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄安裝一百萬個太陽能系統(tǒng)(點擊查看PV-Tech此前相關(guān)報道)，這進一步鞏固了該國在全球市場第二的位置，達到14.5GW。同一時間，印度完成2GW的太陽能安裝。

　　GTM forecasts a decline in the number of installations for the second half of this year, primarily led by China, which raises concerns of a demand imbalance for 2016 overall. GTM estimates that the UK and Japan will also follow suit, with India and the US to grow at triple digit rates. Regardless, the global market is set for a slowdown in 2017, expected to drop by 10% - linked to policy qualms in several large markets. China experienced a feed-in tariff (FIT) pullback of 11% and major grid curtailment. After lower FITs and a halt on new installations in three leading provinces, demand will pull back sharply in the second half of 2016. Equally, GTM expects a major drop in demand in the UK for the second half of the year, with no new utility-scale projects coming online and a quarterly cap on FITs for residential and commercial capacity.

　　GTM預(yù)計，今年下半年安裝的數(shù)量將減少，主要以中國為首，這引起了對于2016年整體需求失衡的擔(dān)憂。GTM估計，英國和日本也將步其后塵，而印度和美國將以三位數(shù)的速度增長。不管怎樣，2017年全球市場將放緩，預(yù)計將下滑10%——與幾個大型市場的政策疑慮(點擊查看PV-Tech此前相關(guān)報道)有關(guān)。中國經(jīng)歷上網(wǎng)電價補貼11%的回落以及大規(guī)模的電網(wǎng)削減。在降低上網(wǎng)電價補貼以及三個主要省份暫停新的安裝項目后，2016年下半年需求將大幅回落。同樣，GTM預(yù)計，今年下半年英國需求將大幅下降，沒有新的公共事業(yè)規(guī)模項目并網(wǎng)，住宅和商業(yè)裝機容量的上網(wǎng)電價補貼達到季度上限。

　　European leaders overshadowed by Asian markets

　　亞洲市場蓋過歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者

　　Previously, Germany, Italy, the UK and France were leading global demand on the strength of their FiT programmes until 2012 when these were scaled-back. Beginning in 2013, China overtook Germany as the country with the highest cumulative installations globally at 44GW, and has beaten Germany every year in annual installations since.

　　此前，德國、意大利、英國和法國由于其上網(wǎng)電價補貼計劃的優(yōu)勢，成為全球需求領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，直至2012年補貼計劃被縮減。2013年開始，中國超越德國成為全球累計安裝量最高的國家，達44GW，自此每年安裝量都擊敗德國。

　　GTM reports that Japan and the US are close to overtaking Germany. Japan, at 10.2GW of installations in 2016, has fallen a few rungs in terms of global ranking, which can perhaps be attributed to new government regulations around FITs that are expected to strike-out around 30% of the nation’s 56GW pipeline of approved projects. GTM predicts a “sharp negative turn” for the market in 2016 which is expected to shrink by 12% year-over-year.

　　GTM報告，日本和美國即將趕超德國。日本2016年安裝量為10.2GW，全球排名降了幾級，這可能歸因于圍繞上網(wǎng)電價補貼的新政府法規(guī)(點擊查看PV-Tech此前相關(guān)報道)，預(yù)計其使該國獲得批準(zhǔn)的56GW項目儲備中30%左右罷工。GTM預(yù)計，2016年該市場遭遇“急劇消極的轉(zhuǎn)變”，預(yù)計年同比將縮減12%。

　　Out to 2021, more than 20 countries will each offer >2GW of cumulative demand

　　展望2021年，超過二十個國家的累計需求將超過2GW

　　GTM also reports that global demand is rapidly diversifying as large-scale solar auctions and net metering schemes permeate markets beyond the current top three, with Latin America leading the way; as Mexico, Brazil and Chile are set to install a cumulative 26GW by 2021. Emerging markets across the globe are set to offer 2GW+ each by 2020.

　　GTM還報告，由于大規(guī)模太陽能拍賣以及凈計量計劃滲透到目前前三以外的市場，全球需求正在迅速多元化，拉丁美洲一路領(lǐng)先，墨西哥、巴西和智利到2021年將累計安裝26GW。到2020年全球新興市場將各自提供2GW以上。

　　GTM forecast the Middle East and Turkey to add 19GW from Algeria, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and the UAE, with Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia adding 23GW by 2021.

　　GTM預(yù)計，到2021年中東和土耳其將從阿爾及利亞、土耳其、約旦、埃及(點擊查看PV-Tech此前相關(guān)報道)和阿聯(lián)酋增加19GW，泰國、菲律賓、韓國、臺灣和印尼增加23GW。

　　作者：Danielle Ola，Solar Media，PV-Tech.org

　　翻譯：李欣，責(zé)任編輯：肖蓓

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